Red Flag RadarForensic public-record signals

The CMBS distress dataset - point-in-time, survivorship-bias-free

Loan-level red flags from SEC 10-D CREFC IRP servicer reports: special-servicing transfers, serious delinquency, appraisal reductions, maturity defaults, loan modifications. Each event is dated as of its servicer report (no look-ahead), evidence-backed and Ed25519-signed; resolved / liquidated loans are retained (no survivorship bias).

How each signal is built · See a worked example →

Coverage (live)

15,626 public loan-level events · 439 CMBS deals · transfer-date span 2013-03-14 → 2026-10-06

flagevents
Appraisal reduction5,139
Serious delinquency4,309
Special-servicing transfer2,711
Loan modification2,166
Maturity default1,301

Evaluate it - free sample

A 200-row taste of the public corpus, same schema as the full license, each row signed (verify via /v1/pubkey or the JSON feed):

Download sample.csvDownload sample.jsonl

Data dictionary

flag_codethe CMBS red-flag type (special-servicing transfer, serious delinquency, appraisal reduction, maturity default, loan modification)
deal_name / deal_cikthe CMBS trust and its SEC CIK
loan_idthe servicer loan identifier
property_type / statecollateral property type + US state
transfer_datethe point-in-time anchor — the servicer-report date of the event
severity / severity_score0-100 severity of the disclosed signal (not a market call)
confidencedetector confidence, separate from severity
reason / summarythe servicer-stated reason + a plain-language summary
evidence_location / sec_urlwhere in the CREFC report + a link to the SEC 10-D filing
signatureEd25519 'alg:fingerprint:value' — verify via /v1/pubkey or /public/cmbs/verify/{id}

License the dataset

The full CMBS distress dataset is licensed direct - for CRE credit desks, CMBS / B-piece investors, and special servicers. The free sample above is to evaluate it.

Research Dataset · $5-10k one-off
A signed sample + data dictionary + methodology to evaluate coverage and schema before licensing.
Full Historical PIT License · $25-75k / year
The complete signed history with weekly / monthly updates - an internal license, point-in-time and survivorship-bias-free.
Collateral Watch · $15-50k / year
A portfolio watchlist for a CRE lender: monitor your CMBS / CRE exposure - special servicing, delinquency, appraisal reductions, maturity defaults and modifications, as they file.

Contact to license →

Factual reports of public SEC filings. Not an allegation of wrongdoing, not investment advice.