Anatomy of a CMBS distress arc
A worked example, straight from the data. Each loan below is a real CMBS mortgage whose distress unfolds across successive monthly servicer reports (Form 10-D) — and our signals fire in point-in-time order as it does, each one evidence-backed, linked to its SEC filing and Ed25519-signed. This is what the dataset captures at loan level. Factual reports of public SEC filings; not an allegation of wrongdoing, not investment advice.
COMM 2015-CCRE24 Mortgage Trust · loan 304241008
47 point-in-time observations across 5 distinct flags — 5 milestones, earliest first:
2020-06-18 → 2023-10-06 · Special-servicing transfer · severity 78/100 · 2 reports
COMM 2015-CCRE24 Mortgage Trust: a lodging loan in OR (loan 304241008) was transferred to special servicing on 2020-06-18.
latest: COMM 2015-CCRE24 Mortgage Trust: a lodging loan in OR (loan 304241008) was transferred to special servicing on 2023-10-06.
2021-09-09 → 2026-04-06 · Appraisal reduction · severity 86/100 · 38 reports
COMM 2015-CCRE24 Mortgage Trust: loan 304241008 has an appraisal reduction of $15,106,322 (~28% of balance) (2021-09-09) — the collateral was re-appraised down.
latest: COMM 2015-CCRE24 Mortgage Trust: loan 304241008 has an appraisal reduction of $31,580,422 (~62% of balance) (2026-04-06) — the collateral was re-appraised down.
2022-09-20 → 2022-10-06 · Loan modification · severity 70/100 · 2 reports
COMM 2015-CCRE24 Mortgage Trust: loan 304241008 was modified by the servicer (code 10), effective 2022-09-20.
latest: COMM 2015-CCRE24 Mortgage Trust: loan 304241008 was modified by the servicer (code 10), effective 2022-10-06.
2023-09-06 · Maturity default · severity 82/100
COMM 2015-CCRE24 Mortgage Trust: loan 304241008 reached balloon maturity without payoff/refi — non-performing matured balloon (paid through 2023-09-06).
2023-09-06 · Serious delinquency · severity 70/100 · 4 reports
COMM 2015-CCRE24 Mortgage Trust: loan 304241008 is 60-89 days delinquent (paid through 2023-09-06).
latest: COMM 2015-CCRE24 Mortgage Trust: loan 304241008 is non-performing matured balloon (paid through 2023-09-06).
COMM 2014-LC17 Mortgage Trust · loan 301741001
46 point-in-time observations across 5 distinct flags — 5 milestones, earliest first:
2019-02-25 · Loan modification · severity 70/100
COMM 2014-LC17 Mortgage Trust: loan 301741001 was modified by the servicer (code 9), effective 2019-02-25.
2020-08-06 · Serious delinquency · severity 80/100
COMM 2014-LC17 Mortgage Trust: loan 301741001 is non-performing matured balloon (paid through 2020-08-06).
2020-08-06 · Maturity default · severity 82/100
COMM 2014-LC17 Mortgage Trust: loan 301741001 reached balloon maturity without payoff/refi — non-performing matured balloon (paid through 2020-08-06).
2020-11-10 · Special-servicing transfer · severity 86/100
COMM 2014-LC17 Mortgage Trust: a multifamily loan in ND (loan 301741001) was transferred to special servicing on 2020-11-10.
2021-09-07 → 2025-02-06 · Appraisal reduction · severity 86/100 · 42 reports
COMM 2014-LC17 Mortgage Trust: loan 301741001 has an appraisal reduction of $1,490,776 (~64% of balance) (2021-09-07) — the collateral was re-appraised down.
latest: COMM 2014-LC17 Mortgage Trust: loan 301741001 has an appraisal reduction of $1,982,564 (~85% of balance) (2025-02-06) — the collateral was re-appraised down.
JPMDB Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2016-C2 · loan 305811001
38 point-in-time observations across 5 distinct flags — 5 milestones, earliest first:
2020-10-13 · Loan modification · severity 70/100
JPMDB Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2016-C2: loan 305811001 was modified by the servicer (code 10), effective 2020-10-13.
2022-09-27 · Special-servicing transfer · severity 78/100
JPMDB Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2016-C2: a retail loan in NY (loan 305811001) was transferred to special servicing on 2022-09-27.
2022-12-14 → 2025-09-09 · Appraisal reduction · severity 74/100 · 34 reports
JPMDB Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2016-C2: loan 305811001 has an appraisal reduction of $6,359,692 (~21% of balance) (2022-12-14) — the collateral was re-appraised down.
latest: JPMDB Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2016-C2: loan 305811001 has an appraisal reduction of $7,715,475 (2025-09-09) — the collateral was re-appraised down.
2024-02-09 · Serious delinquency · severity 80/100
JPMDB Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2016-C2: loan 305811001 is non-performing matured balloon (paid through 2024-02-09).
2024-02-09 · Maturity default · severity 82/100
JPMDB Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2016-C2: loan 305811001 reached balloon maturity without payoff/refi — non-performing matured balloon (paid through 2024-02-09).
How each signal is built · Dataset & sample · Latest signals
Factual reports of public SEC filings. Not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to the SEC or any government agency. Not an allegation of wrongdoing, not investment advice.